Proportional Betting Calculator
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Problem One
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Using the calculator above, you find that a sample proportion of 44% would results in a z-score of 1.83 under the null distribution, which translates to a p-value of 6.79%. Interpret Your Results - Since your p-value of 6.79% is greater than the significance level of 5%, you do not have sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
- The Kelly Criterion is a popular staking method which suggests that your stake should be proportional to the perceived edge. Kelly Criterion Staking Method Explained What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure.
- Using the Tottenham example above, betting on Spurs to win at evens (decimal odds of 2.0) with a 53% probability and £500 bank would result in the following calculation: Stake = ((2.0 x 0.53) – 1) / (2.0 – 1) x 100 Stake = ((1.06 – 1) / 1) x 100 Stake = 6% of bank or £30 if bank is £500.
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First, they require punters to be able to accurately assess the probability of something happening and compare this number to the odds they are getting. If you are tossing a coin, this is easy, because you are dealing with the mathematical certainty that heads will come up, in the long run, 50% of the time. If you are then offered odds of $3.50, which imply heads will only come up 29% of the time, it is relatively simple to work out how “wrong” the odds are and bet accordingly.
It is no surprise that the Kelly Criterion became popularised in betting circles by blackjack-playing card-counters like Edward Thorpe. The basis of his blackjack technique – outlined in his famous book, Beat the Dealer – was to determine the extent to which the deck of cards was stacked in his favour and bet accordingly. When you are dealing with reliable and specific numbers – like the fact that there are 52 cards in a deck – then reliably assessing probability is straightforward.
Most sports betting, however, is not like this: the nature of it means that you cannot be mathematically certain about anything. For example, you may think that odds of $1.76 on Melbourne beating St Kilda represent value, but it’s hard to come up with the precise probability of them winning, which is what systems like the Kelly Criterion require. In Australian Rules, as in all sports, there are just too many unquantifiable variables to have that kind of certainty.
Many punters try to get around this by using rating systems and statistical models that provide greater certainty about the predictions they are making. And it’s important to note that, if you can do this – even if you are not completely accurate – the Kelly Criterion and other proportional staking systems are still applicable to sports betting, which is why many professional punters base their staking strategies around some form of them.