Line Moves Betting

1. Line Moves Sports Betting
2. Nfl Betting Line Movement
3. Nfl Betting Line Moves

Identifying Steam Moves
by Jeremy Martin

Unhighlight row. Betting line set up for a sportsbook. To illustrate our example of an ideal distribution for a sportsbook, let’s look at this sample line from Bovada. Let’s say, hypothetically, by the time the vegas lines close. The first thing that you have to understand, is how regular betting lines work. Whenever you are placing a bet, there is always a favorite and an underdog. The favorite is indicated by the minus sign (-), while the underdog is indicated by the plus sign (+). These lines usually tend to shift by the percentage of people betting on both teams. As a general rule, if you like the number on a favorite against the spread, betting it early is recommended due to the fact that most bettors prefer favorites and most line movements go against the “chalk” as. Line moves Moves Injuries Betting percentage Bet% Box score Free Football Picks, Sports Lines, and Scores The football season is heating up and you can receive free picks, sports lines, and scores every game day from each of our handicappers.

Following line moves is one of the keys to success in regards to betting on sports. The importance of monitoring these fluctuations of the point spread has become evident in recent years as most of the major sports betting portals have installed some kind of live odds screen for their site visitors.

There are two types of players who move the lines. First there are the public or recreational bettors. These players tend to bet on favorites and 'overs,' especially in football. Then you have the professional bettors - often labeled 'wise guys' - and the syndicate players. This second group proves to be most important when examining line moves. When the pros move a number, it's often a good idea to jump on board - as long as it's not too late.

A 'steam move' is the phrase used to describe the line change when a large amount of money goes down on one side of a game in a short period of time. This is usually due to the wise guys making a move on a particular side. After these players choose their side, the bookmakers usually act accordingly by moving their number in an attempt to make the other side look more attractive to other bettors.

'You are going to make as big of a move as you can possibly make because that game is probably not going back to that original number,' said Doc from Rio, the head oddsmaker for Skybook, of the line move that comes as a result of a limit bet from a professional player. 'Certain guys just know where the line is going. Not that they win or lose every time; but they are right more often than they are wrong.'

Steam moves can happen at any time during the week in football. If an opening number is considered a weak one by the pros, they will attack it immediately and the line will shift early in the week. In some cases the wise guys wait for the public to bet the number to a certain point before making their move. Public money takes some time to move the line. The pros get it moving in a hurry.

'Usually professional money moves (the line) around town pretty quickly,' said Jay Kornegay, executive director of race and sports for the Las Vegas Hilton. 'All the sudden - boom, boom, boom, boom - all the sixes are gone. The public money takes a little longer. It accumulates. Maybe because it is just so spread out. Maybe it's (because) we don't respect their opinion as much. It is very rare that the public will bet an underdog. They are always going to bet the better team. So you can always kind of tell by what teams are involved.'

Due to the advent of the Don Best Odds Service, which is used by most sports books in the industry; bookies can keep a 'real time' tab on the action at competing shops. If they see a game move ½ point in the same direction at a couple of books in a matter of minutes, they will often chose to move their number before they risk a limit bet by a professional or syndicate player on the same game. As Doc from Rio mentioned, the pros are usually on the right side.

Public money tends to come in the day before a game or on the day of the game. Professionals take the line when it suits them best. Line moves that take place early in the week are almost exclusively a result of 'smart action.' In addition, line moves of more than ½ a point (if no injuries or weather situations are involved) are usually a result of the wise guys.

'The best way to know (if a line move is a steam move) is to check the opening line against the game day line,' commented Erick Vill, head linesmaker for Millennium Sports. 'If a line moved only ½ point, that was due to the (public) action of the book. But if the line moved one or more points, then you know the big syndicate player played it. The big moves in the NFL usually take place before Sunday.'

Monitoring line moves is not an exact science. Once the line has moved, all of the value could already be gone from that particular number - especially if everyone in the industry already made the change.

Betting syndicates also manipulate the Don Best service in order to trick the books into moving to numbers that best suit them.

Many books have lower limits early in the week since that is the timeframe when the professionals tend to do most of their damage. Some pro players might make limit bets (at the lower limits) on the favorite at a couple of shops that are on the Don Best screen early in the week. This will sometimes cause a panic in the industry where everyone will move their numbers thinking that is the side the wise guys are on for the week.

Later in the week when the books raise their limits, these same bettors will wager heavy action on the opposite side until it is moved back to the original number. They will then take a couple small bets on the underdog at the initial point spread that will cancel out their original bets. Therefore, they just manipulated the books into giving them the number they always wanted without taking any monetary risk (at the original line). This is called a 'fake move' and can be very dangerous for the books.

'It's just something you have to follow and use your instincts,' said Kornegay. 'Watching these line movements over time, you can pretty much tell where the line is going and who is betting it.'

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When sportsbooks unveil their lines to bettors, bookmakers set their lines based on a wide variety of factors. They use highly-guarded proprietary systems (both qualitative and quantitative) to establish the opening lines and the odds attached to them. But how (and why) do the odds change?

There are, of course, some basic principles behind line movement, but things get pretty murky.

That’s why we asked Anthony Best, a veteran professional handicapper, for insight into how bookmakers arrive at their numbers and how to beat them. The answer as to what really moves the needle might surprise you.

Read on to absorb the insights of a real sharp, and get a leg up on bookmakers!

How Bookmakers Set Initial Lines and Why They Move

Line Moves Sports Betting

Before we dive into minutiae, it’s necessary to brush up on precisely what bookmakers hope to accomplish when they set their lines and odds. There are some basic principles behind why lines and odds are moved.

What We Know About Setting Lines

It’s common knowledge that bookmakers pay attention to certain key basics. Obviously, they factor in each team’s history, record, injuries, home and away records, as well as sport-specific advanced analytics.

Beyond these basic guiding principles, however, there isn’t a ton of public information about how bookmakers generate lines.

What’s an Ideal Initial Line for a Bookmaker?

It’s well-established that, in an ideal situation, a bookmaker will do everything they can to attract equal action on both sides of a line. There’s juice (or vig) on every line, usually running between 5-10%. In a perfect world, bookmakers would attract perfectly equal action on both sides of a line, and simply collect the vig.

This doesn’t often happen in practice, as equal wagers on both sides of a line are extremely rare. Bookmakers have a few tricks up their sleeve to encourage equitable action on both sides of a line.

What Do We Know About Why Bookmakers Move the Line?

Bookmakers use the basic principles of supply and demand when adjusting lines and odds.

If bookmakers don’t get enough supply (betting volume), they’ll take steps to artificially boost the demand for the other side of the line. By adjusting the line, bookmakers try to encourage action to make it more attractive for bettors. Ideally, an increase in demand on the other side of the line results in greater betting volume.

Nfl Betting Line Movement

For example, if they wanted to get more action on the favorite, bookmakers might move the spread from -7.5 to -6.5 (or shift the odds from -120 to -115).

If the betting volume becomes greater than what the sportsbook and/or oddsmakers are comfortable with, they artificially reduce demand and make the line or odds less desirable. A reduction in demand results in lower betting volume.

Nfl Betting Line Moves

In this scenario, they might move the spread for the favorite from -7.5 to – 8.5 (or shift the odds from -120 to -125).

Now that you’ve brushed up on the basics, let’s hear what Anthony Best had to say about line movement, and how to capitalize on it!

Pro Bettor Anthony Best Sheds Light on Line Movement

The following Q&A is based on an SBD phone interview and has been edited for both length and clarity. You can read our more extensive conversation with Anthony Best as part of our Betting Scams Guide.

SBD: So Anthony, how does the betting line move? And do professional bettors like yourself beat the bookmakers?

AB: To begin, linesmakers and bookmakers tell everyone they are only interested in making 10% vigorish (“vig” or “juice”) for brokering or booking the action.

This way, they assume no risk. They don’t care who wins or loses. They just want a lot of handle or bets. This is what they once did and maintain that they still do.

However, it’s partially untrue. Now, since the action isn’t always totally balanced anyway, they are out to beat you! That being said, an ideal scenario for bookmakers is still getting equal action on both sides of the lines, as this does indeed guarantee them a profit.

SBD: What exactly do you mean it’s partially untrue that bookmakers don’t care who wins or loses?

AB: In many ways, its analogous to walking up to a craps table. At the table, odds are posted clearly on the felt, including all the large house advantage bets like the field, or snake eyes, or boxcars.

However, the only bet the house has no advantage on – and pays out true odds for – is when you play the odds behind the pass line. These odds aren’t advertised anywhere; you have to just know to do it. The same is true of betting on sports.

See, let me explain how it works. There are a few guys who have a formula, and they’re the linesmakers. They use statistics to predict what the actual spread in the game will likely be. Let’s say it’s the favorite laying, minus -7.

So, the linesmaker will send this number to the bookmaker for them to use as a point spread. Now, what the house and bookmakers try to do is post that point spread, hoping that it balances the action so they can take out their 10% vig. As such, no matter who wins, they collect 10%.

As I mentioned earlier, a handful of known professional handicappers and bettors who have a somewhat different formula (and some handicapping expertise, apart from just the raw linesmaker data), will try to find value in that point spread and bet accordingly.

Anyway, the pros put down some “early” or “smart” money. Afterward, the house adjusts that number accordingly. Between that time and the game, the media will give their opinion. This then influences the public and the line—like a barometer moves.

SBD: So you think it’s the professional bettors – and their early money – that really moves the needle on the line and the odds initially, but then it’s the public that moves it?

AB: Yes, exactly. The day of the game is when most of the public places their bets. This is when you really see the line move, based on who the public and fans like.

Then, the pros will come in again with what’s called “smart” or “late” money. Again, they will normally take any spread which seems “off” to them or any handicapping angle they like. Sometimes, they’ll just play against the public.

In fact, most every competent professional usually takes the underdog, while the public typically bets the favorite. That’s why they’re the favorite. And just like the media, 90% of the public is wrong 90% of the time. The only people who win are the house and a handful of pros.

Now, the biggest difference is that the bookmakers no longer just try to balance the action. They try to beat the public. This is done by posting a point spread which is skewed against the player.

SBD: How does this work in practice?

AB: Say if you look at [the line] objectively, it’s really a -7 and the house knows it. Of course, most of the time, the house does indeed know what the real line is.

Say the favorite is a popular team that the media and public will be highly likely bet on. Bookmakers may open the line at -10.

They do this because the public doesn’t accurately factor into the point spread. Then, of course, there’s the media, which fuels the public’s foolishness. That line may even go up from -10 to -13. The role of the media can’t be understated in fueling the way the public bets; they’ve got an outsized impact.

All the while, the more the line goes in one direction, the more the pros will invest and bet on the other side.

SBD: What does all this mean for professional bettors like yourself?

AB: Things are definitely different than they once were. I’d say that, from the pro’s point of view, the most significant change is not only having to beat the player, but also having a better formula and line (and better strategies) to also beat the house.

How to Use This Knowledge to Grow Your Bankroll

Understanding what drives line movement and how oddsmakers shift is integral to any intermediate or high-level sports betting strategy. Professional bettors like Anthony Best anticipate and bet against the public to get the most favorable numbers, and he would likely think that chasing steam is a prudent move for bettors.

The importance of understanding and anticipating how the line moves doesn’t end there. For intermediate level strategy, your ability to successfully shop lines at online sportsbooks will improve dramatically if you can anticipate how the lines are going to fluctuate. In regards to sharp high-level strategy, understanding how and why the line moves is integral to arbitrage betting, too.

Sports bettors can learn a lot about how to beat the bookmakers by studying the fundamentals of investing and playing the stock markets. Line movement often mimics price discovery in Initial Public Offerings. To learn more, check out our article where we compare the stock market to sports betting.