Betting Odds Fluctuations
The odds fluctuation and efficient market theory states that it is the closing odds that are the most relevant since they use all the information available at the moment the event starts. If your own analysis leads you to the conclusion that the underdogs are likely to prevail, it is advisable to wait and bet on the closing odds. The team studied 10 years’ worth of data on nearly half a million football matches and the associated odds offered by 32 bookmakers between January 2005 and June 2015.
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It’s not uncommon to see odds change before an event takes place. Sometimes these changes will be small, on other occasions they will be much more significant. There are a whole range of factors that can cause a change in odds.
Pre-Match betting and fluctuations
Before a match or competition starts, once the bookies have rolled out their initial odds it is unusual for these numbers to significantly change. These odds are primarily based on statistical analysis with a few other variants factored in, such as significant injuries or the amount wagered by users.
For example: if a bookmaker releases odds on a game and an unusually high amount of punters bet on a certain result it is not uncommon for the bookies to change their odds to limit potential damages.
However, before the game begins there are a number of key factors which explain why betting odds change:
Serious injuries
A few days before kick-off a team’s star player picks up a knock in training and are ruled out for the upcoming match. This will have a significant impact on the teams overall quality, and a negative effect on their morale.
After Messi sustained his long injury odds on Barcelona to win dropped slightly, due to the integral part Messi plays in their successes.
Key victories / defeats
If a team suffers a demoralising defeat in the week, perhaps in a European competitiion, this will damage their confidence and will reduce their likelihood of a victory, and vice versa.
However, there is the so called “European hangover” which is prevalent in football. Teams that have to travel frequently often find their domestic form suffers.
Fan trouble
In football, specifically in Latin America and Eastern Europe, key games such as derbies can see a lot of violence in the match build-up. It is not uncommon for team buses to be pelted with stones etc.
In Turkey – a famously hostile football environment – the Fenerbahce team bus was shot at by rival fans. Unsurprisingly the players were somewhat unsettled.
Freak occurrences
Betting Odds Fluctuations Calculator
Similar to fan trouble, unusual events that take place shortly before a match can have an adverse effect on competitors. There have been incidents where matches have begun shortly after serious disasters or fan deaths, and this can impact a team.
Before Deportivo took on Atletico Madrid a fan was killed during a pre-match skirmish between support groups, which shocked players and fans alike.
Climate / Weather
If a set of particularly harsh weather conditions impacts a match it can have a dramatic impact on the outcome, particularly if the visiting team is unused to the harshness of the conditions.
European teams travelling to Russia in winter often have to contend with heavy snow and extreme cold, which they never experience domestically.
Travel
Visiting teams are always slightly on the back foot, and a particularly arduous trip can tip the odds more heavily in favour of the home side. There have been examples of team buses breaking down or crashing, leaving players to seek other transport, or even walk
A few seasons ago AS Monaco’s team bus broke down, forcing the players to hail a fleet of taxis to take them to the ground.
Betting Odds Fluctuations Today
In-play / live betting
Unlike pre-match fluctuations, which usually come as a surprise, the constant changes to the in-play odds are to be expected, and this is what makes this type of betting so appealing to punters.
In-play revolves around reacting to the unfolding events, and is far less statistics based than the original odds rolled out by the bookies. Success with in-play betting requires a healthy dose of luck, but primarily a strong personal knowledge of the participants and the ability to read the game. Just because the favourite starts poorly it doesn’t mean you should pile all your money on the underdog.
For example: a football match is under way, the home team are strong favourites but concede an early goal. The odds quickly change to favour an away victory. However knowledgeable punters are aware that the home team have a habit of conceding early, and going on to win. This allows the astute punter to capitalise on the higher odds when they bet on a home victory.
Please note: due to the Interactive Gambling Act in Australia, any form of live betting cannot be conducted online.
How are odds calculated?
Learning how odds are calculated may seem confusing at first, but once it’s broken down the process is surprisingly easy.
Odds are essentially the probability of an outcome, the higher the odds the less likely something is to happen, and these predictions are largely based on statistical analysis. The analysis is done primarily by Risk Analysts, Traders and Odds Compilers who are employed by the bookies to set odds and assess the likelihood of every outcome of every match.
A huge number of factors are taken into account, from team form to injuries, the bookies also have to factor in betting patterns. If a team like Manchester United are playing relegation candidates Sunderland the majority of punters will put their money on Man Utd, so the odds will be much lower to allow for this and limit the bookies outlay. After all, the bookmakers are there to make money.
Today's Results Info File Download
A new feature exclusively for members. This download will update throughout the day, giving a summary of the race along with the in-play odds movements as they happened. This is a unique extract that will help you build a picture of patterns, fluctuations and help support trading the volatility of in play horse racing.
The in-play odds are shown in separate columns, time stamping of odds are just over 1 recording a second (more like 3 stampings every 2 seconds).
Betting Odds Fluctuations Against
This will allow members to build up some valuable, exclusive data in an easy to manipulate format. Perfect for those of you involved, or wanting to become involved in in-play trading, specifically Back to Lay or Lay to Back where the basic in-play minimum and in-play maximum figure doesn't paint the full picture.
*Please refer to Disclaimer below.
Today's Horse Racing Results Info File Download
This feature is for Advanced Members only. If you are already an Advanced Member, please sign in first.
Example Screen shots
*Disclaimer
In-play odds movement are highly volatile. The displayed is captured at roughly 3 times every 2 seconds and is subject to the availability and accuracy of the provider as well as assuming the market allowed trading in-play.
Where a market suspends and re-opens after the conclusion of a race (photo finish or judges call) the odds movement shown is only during the race taking place itself, i.e. - we don't publish the trading odds after the race has concluded as these markets can re-open for several minutes while a decision is made.
The pre-race odds do not account for any late withdrawals or non runner declarations that may be made just before the start that could affect the movement of odds of other horses.
While we make every effort to ensure the data is reliable and accurate, we can not be responsible for how or where the data is used.